Even if you don't follow the stock market closely, you probably saw headlines about how the major indexes (Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) suffered significant declines on April 3 and 4, 2025, the two trading days after Trump's tariff announcement. In this post, I argue that far from being a "healthy correction", the declines we saw in major US stock indexes from the afternoon of April 2 through the close on April 4 are actually very unusual and possibly a troubling sign of what's to come. Therefore, in my unprofessional opinion, investors should exercise extreme caution before buying significantly into US stocks in the near future. Although I have my own political biases (anti-Trump) that certainly color my analysis (as does everyone), I will try to keep this post as focused on objective data as possible. The Lead-Up As near as I can tell, the actual "announcement" of Liberation Day tariffs took place the morning of March 21, a couple hours a...
Don't Trust the Process Prelude The first thing I did, after signing the offer letter, was to uninstall the Blind app from my phone. My brain needed a long break from that one. The anonymous commentary from tech employees is valuable, but I don't love the picture it paints of us. Next, I cancelled all the five-hour-long "virtual onsite" interviews I had scheduled for early January and closed my in-progress homework assignments. The feeling of liberation from this was palpable. I had finally landed a new job, one that I was very excited about. More on that later. For now, let's delve into the months of misery leading up to it. As is tradition in my field, allow me to lay out a statement of scope. Not in Scope A solution to these problems. If you're someone who thinks that nobody can present complaints without bundling them with a neatly packaged solution, you should probably turn back now. Any treatment of those coming from less advantage...